Over the the last two and a half years the ICTA has tracked virtually every used Checker automobile that has been listed for sale on the internet. We have constantly kept tabs on: Ebay transactions, Letgo, Craig’s List, Hemming’s Motor News and Facebook Marketplace. This effort have been performed by the combined effort of ICTA members. Although we don’t typically know the ending result of a these transactions for all the transactions, we have been able to track the asking price and in some cases the actual final sale price.
We can slice and dice this data in many ways, in this blog we will take a look at the break down of Checker model and again try to project a true Checker survival calculation. This is a complete list of the majority of Checkers sold or advertised over the last 30 months. Detailed analysis is very interesting as it confirm and disproves many Checker myths. It also demonstrates Checker market trends in the selling of used Checkers.
Generally speaking this writer thinka of Checkers being sold in the collector car market would be standard Checker Marathon sedans, These cars would have been sold in the retail market and would not have experienced a hard commercal taxicab beating. Given this, it’s would be fair to assume that the majority of the Checker collector car market are A12’s.
Based on a analysis of the numbers, we can see that majority at 53% of Checker sold are indeed standard Checker Marathon A12 sedans, that said, this writer was surprised that the number was not larger.
The majority of the remaining models represents three other distinct Checker models. 15% of Checkers sold are actually Checker A11 and A11E taxicabs, 14% of Checker models sold represent Checker wagons and 12% represent Aerobus variations.
The numbers present some surprising survival rates. Aerobus variants and wagons, indicate a 10% survival rate for all Checker wagons and Aerobuses produced between 1960-1974. That’s good news for anybody looking to buy a Checker. The Checker wagon appears to be the current “in” car among Checker fans. They’re seems to be a larger supply out there for sale, than one would imagine. It also demonstrates that the Checker is indeed a tough as a tank.
Between 1962 and 1982, Checker produced 86,924 Checker A11 taxicabs. Over the last two and one half years, only 40 have been listed for sale within all the monitored collector cars databases. That represents a very low survivor rate of .004% of all A11 taxicabs produced. That bad news for the many ICTA fans who are interested in a taxicab restoration, they are pretty rare, less than 20 units a year pop up for sale.
Now that we have some real actual numbers, could we put this numbers to use in calculating a Checker survival count?
To put this into perspective total Checkers produced between 1958 through 1982 is 121,486 automobiles. US national scrappage rates typically are set for the first ten years at 10%, but after ten years age those rates go down to about 1%. Assuming this, we could assume that Checker survival would be 1214 units in 2019, almost 40 years after Checker production ended.
Balance that against a .004% survival rates for taxicabs, the numbers will be significantly less. The best calculation, is to adjust survival against the balance of 10% for consumer cars and a lower number for taxicabs. The elimination of taxicabs would reduce production by 86,924 units. Apply the 10% factor to non taxicab production yields 34,562 units of or 345 units today. Add to another 35 units based on Taxicab survival at 004%, will yield a total of 380 units total.
Given we have seen 300 units on the used car market since 2017, that represents 80% of the total forecast. Add in 50 units that are in transition with the Joe Pollard estate and it would appear that the forecasted number covers all Checker on the market since the summer of 2017. Clearly the forecast of 380 number is to low, but the at 1214 forecast is clearly to high given the low survival rates for taxicabs.
We will never be able to project a good survival rate. Let’s double the calculated number, then we are at 760 units. We have 1000 members in Facebook and another 200 members on our email list. Do they all own Checkers? We’ll never really know, but as long as there is an ICTA, we’ll keep tracking.
Checker Production 1959 – 1982
Note, Total A9 production 5389 split for 59/60 evenly, 1960-1965 A11 and Aerobus numbers combined, 1981 product mix estimated based on 1980 numbers.